Tuesday, June 27, 2017

The Broader Scientific Method

The scientific method is the whole process whereby science generates, testsvets, and evolves ideas. Most descriptions of the scientific method are at best partial representations focused on the actions of individual scientists, typically leaving off the subtle distinction between testing or experimenting and vetting, which includes collective actions of many people interacting in conversation as part of the scientific process. Here is one example list of steps in the scientific method:

https://www.sciencebuddies.org/science-fair-projects/project_scientific_method.shtml
which states:

1. Ask a question.
2. Do background research.
3. Construct a hypothesis.
4. Test your hypothesis by conducting an experiment.
5. Analyze your data and draw a conclusion.
6. Communicate your results.






This list and most lists like it are missing some of the most fundamental steps in the scientific process. Although part of science is conducted at the level of the individual scientist, the rest of it is conducted as an open conversation between different people. All scientists have biases, because they are people. Any of our conclusions could be wrong. They could be wrong because we did not ask the best question. They could be wrong because the background research neglected important relevant points. They could be wrong because our hypothesis was poorly posed, included logical flaws, or because it left out fundamental concepts. They could be wrong because the experiment was poorly designed. They could be wrong because of errors in our analysis or because we applied inappropriate analysis techniques. In the end, our conclusions could effectively be wrong because we miscommunicate them, using language that confuses the listeners.

Given the various pathways we could be wrong, science depends on having other people review our work, including people with biases different from our own. The formal peer review process we follow to publish results is an important first step, but by itself it is woefully inadequate and often results in wrong conclusions being deemed to be right, or correct conclusions being discarded. In a more general sense, science vets its results through an open conversation in which anyone who wishes to do so can challenge or debunk our conclusions for any reason. Similarly, just as anyone can debunk a scientific claim, the counter claim is also up for open discussion and refutation by the original scientist or by anyone else who wishes to participate. Science reaches consensus through years or decades of this type of open debate. The debate takes place in formally published papers, at scientific conferences, in the public media, on the Internet, and in informal conversations. In spite of consensus, no published conclusions are ever considered final, even if they are held at high confidence. For science to function properly, any idea must be open to being debunked at any time.

Modern science functions as an open marketplace of ideas. Most new ideas and some "tried and true" ideas are wrong. Often when we are wrong, we think we are right, so we need discussion with other people to protect us from our own folly. Just as science says that anyone is free to express any idea, anyone must be free to debunk any idea with evidence and logical argument. All ideas should be challenged, including those that are new and probably crazy as well as longstanding broadly accepted theories. As such theories are tested and attacked, if they are true, they can stand the test of time and our confidence in them increases. As ideas are challenged, improved, and communicated better as a result of being challenged, we come to understand them better and to see them better in their context. This open conversation causes our ideas to evolve with time, usually (but not always) toward something more correct. In that sense, we can think of scientific ideas as similar to Darwinian evolution of life. Ideas evolve in the face of criticism and further evidence, changing over time into something more fit for survival, or they get discarded as new ideas take over in the same context.

In a healthy scientific culture, even a child can suggest an idea, have it welcomed, and then have it challenged. In that case, a parent, a teacher, or peers may do the challenging. If being wrong is not disparaged (but is challenged) this approach might have positive impact on the psychology of most children. The school system trains children (and thus the adults that children become) that being wrong is bad, and that they need to seek truth from unquestioned authorities to determine what is correct. Instead of the logical pathway toward an idea being the most important aspect of education (honing the thinking process), whether the final answer is right or wrong is the priority. This educational philosophy has it backwards. Children need to learn to develop and process ideas, to accept challenge of those ideas, and to learn to discard and replace ideas when they are shown to be wrong. They also need to learn that people tend to hold on to wrong ideas, so we collectively depend on vigorous, unrestrained debate. Children need to expect to sometimes be offended as part of that debate, and they need to learn to accept that offense and move on with the conversation focused on the topic instead of the offense.

Teaching the processes that most likely lead to correct answers will ultimately help students to arrive at more correct answers in the future, even on questions that we have not yet thought to ask or questions whose answers are presently unknown. Emphasizing only the correct answers yields people who cannot think effectively. In the healthy open marketplace of ideas, people are constantly discussing, debunking, testing, and seeking good understanding of reality. Sometimes people will be wrong and will want to stay wrong. Sometimes their biases or priors mislead them. This stubbornness is normal. Scientists are not objective people. Science itself is also not completely objective, because it is done by scientists. The reasons science works so well are not that science is simply true or that scientists or experts are right all the time. It's not even that scientists tend to be really great at what they do (even when they are, their greatness is always insufficient). Science works because ideas are freely presented and vigorously tested and debated by other people, and because this debate influences the direction future science takes.

A broader restatement of the scientific method including both the scientist and the scientific community follows: 

You, the scientist should: 

1. Ask a question.
2. Do background research.
3. Construct a hypothesis.
4. Test your hypothesis by conducting an experiment.
5. Analyze your data and draw a conclusion.
6. Communicate your results.
7. Accept and respond to challenges from other people, and revise your questions, hypotheses, experiments, analysis techniques, conclusions, and communications where facts and logical arguments merit.

The scientific community should: 

Engage with the scientist's ideas, discussing each step in the process, criticizing, debunking, or adding clarifying ideas where appropriate. Different scientists from the first should repeat steps 1-7 to validate or refute the original work, then, they should modify questions, hypotheses, experiments, analysis techniques, and conclusions where evidence and logical argument dictate.